Some analysis of atWar's activity (or lack of)

AtWar has a built-in analytics system to tell us how many players are online at any given time. Normally only mods and admins have access to it, although it's not really secret information. In fact, I've shared screenshots from this system myself, in previous posts. I've also shared it with people genuinely interested in knowing what's happening behind the scenes of atWar. I think it's fair to say I've been as open as I can with the community.

Despite this, certain people with axes to grind have recently been sharing screenshots from this system, as if it were some clandestine thing. I don't know what they hope to accomplish, honestly. But that's okay. Let's look at some charts together, and then everyone can make their own decisions. Sound like a good deal?

(By the way, if you read this whole post I have a nice surprise for you, so stay tuned!)

I've seen screenshots going around basically like this:



This shows the last 1 year of players online. I've added a marker at the point where I bought atWar, but otherwise it's unchanged.

What do you see in this chart? My detractors would probably say it proves I've "ruined" atWar, or some other nonsense. They're entitled to their opinions. As for me, I can only tell you what I see, and this chart tells me several things. I'll explain more in a moment, but lets start with the most obvious one: atWar has been in decline for a long time.

The 2 year chart makes this obvious:



You'll note I've drawn 2 lines. The red line marks the lowest point. The yellow line is a crude representation of the overall trend: down. (If I actually took the time to export this data into better charting software, I could do more informative things like moving average lines, but for now we'll just have to make do with my line drawings...)

The 5 year chart makes this even more obvious:



Bottom line? atWar has been in decline for a long time.

Now I've been here for what, 7 months or so? I told everyone at the outset that I thought it would take at least a year to turn things around. There's just so much work that needs to be done to reverse the trend, it can't happen overnight.

Now let's look at the first chart again, and I'll show you the other things I see:



In no particular order:

1) I see "support" around the 110-ish level. By "support" I mean there is a level of regular users who aren't affected by whatever drama of the week is going on. Over the last year, our daily average (the blue line) has never dipped below this 110 "support" number. That tells me our base is holding stable. (now, if the blue average were to drop below 110 I would be concerned, but so far that hasn't been the case, which I take as an encouraging sign....)

2) There was a boost in activity around the time of the ownership change. I think a lot of people were excited, and word got around to some people who hadn't been online for a long time. I might also call this the "honeymoon period". This seemed to gradually taper off after 2-3 months, but it was nice while it lasted.

3) From early-March to mid-May I tested out some new ad campaigns. The goal was to see what kind of traffic we would get, and what our "conversion rate" would be. In other words, for every $X dollars we spend in ads, how many new users would we gain? And how long would they stick around?

I can summarize the results of this in a few sentences. Our click through rate, or the number of people who clicked on our ads and came to the atWar website, was pretty good. Our conversion rate, or the number of people who actually stayed around and played games, was terrible. The lesson here? We need to make improvements so new users will stay around more. Otherwise the money I spend on ads is just going down the drain, and unfortunately I'm not rich enough to justify that!

4) Since then, the number of players online hasn't really changed much. In fairness, I was gone on vacation from late-May to mid-June, so nothing much happened during that time.

After I got back from vacation, I had a sit-down meeting with my marketing director, and we drew up a list of what we feel are the most important changes and improvements that need to be made, before we can justify another ad spend. I am currently working on this list. (I'll reveal what the new things are as they become completed, but if you've been paying attention to what I've publicly discussed of my plans already, what I'm doing now won't be too much of a surprise...)

So there you have it. You've seen some charts, and my analysis of them. Now it's time for the surprise I promised you. Don't take my word for it, check out the charts for yourself:

https://atwar-game.com/system/online.aspx

Enjoy!

---

If you have any questions, feel free to reply here and ask. Any serious questions will be considered!

Move it to off-topic please

Everyone know the number no need to make a thread a bit too late lil dave

Quick question Dave- Do you think you'll improve the tutorial system any time soon? When I first joined, i played the tutorial and then was thrown into the game, with little know of what to do, and then it took me a long time to learn of advanced mechanics, such as walling or hotkeys, maybe make an advanced tutorial for that?

Wr1tt3n by Praedyth, 16.07.2019 at 06:07

Quick question Dave- Do you think you'll improve the tutorial system any time soon? When I first joined, i played the tutorial and then was thrown into the game, with little know of what to do, and then it took me a long time to learn of advanced mechanics, such as walling or hotkeys, maybe make an advanced tutorial for that?

Yes. The tutorial is actually one of the things I'll be updating soon. I believe it's a common problem for new players arriving, that I hope to fix.

Never knew this feature would be released. I'm glad it has, for supporters and people who like to post new forum posts to get the most traffic.
A couple of questions;

Which timezone is used?
Will other features such as the average amount of time people stay in games be released?
- This one feature would help map makers produce maps tailored to their audience.

More statistics released would generally help the game.

When i put date of 2012 this happens



Also I think that most of the new players get bored really fast. If you take a look at beginners loby you can see there are mostly world maps being hosted when most of the new players already got premium for free. Maybe add to tutorial a section that explains how to host a custom map or if it is possible some custom maps to be automaticly hosted if there is a way to do so.Maybe new members might find them more fun. Or maybe a supporter acount used from all suporters that can be almost 24/7 and host custom fun maps / fun scenarios. Also would be nice if extra cities would go automaticly toggled for every premium user many might not know what it means or forget to add it. Without extra cities world map looks kinda empty and boring.



Edit: For the curius cats like me data begins from 2012-03-12

Wr1tt3n by JUGERS2, 16.07.2019 at 07:36

Also I think that most of the new players get bored really fast. If you take a look at beginners loby you can see there are mostly world maps being hosted when most of the new players already got premium for free. Maybe add to tutorial a section that explains how to host a custom map or if it is possible some custom maps to be automaticly hosted if there is a way to do so.Maybe new members might find them more fun. Or maybe a supporter acount used from all suporters that can be almost 24/7 and host custom fun maps / fun scenarios. Also would be nice if extra cities would go automaticly toggled for every premium user many might not know what it means or forget to add it. Without extra cities world map looks kinda empty and boring.



Edit: For the curius cats like me data begins from 2012-03-12

Merge the two lobbies, so we can finally solve this problem...

Wr1tt3n by Froyer, 16.07.2019 at 05:19

Everyone know the number no need to make a thread a bit too late lil dave

Stfu u nerd

Wr1tt3n by Kaska, 16.07.2019 at 08:15

Wr1tt3n by Froyer, 16.07.2019 at 05:19

Everyone know the number no need to make a thread a bit too late lil dave

Stfu u nerd

triggered guy go away its off the topic

Wr1tt3n by Dave, 16.07.2019 at 06:36

Wr1tt3n by Praedyth, 16.07.2019 at 06:07

Quick question Dave- Do you think you'll improve the tutorial system any time soon? When I first joined, i played the tutorial and then was thrown into the game, with little know of what to do, and then it took me a long time to learn of advanced mechanics, such as walling or hotkeys, maybe make an advanced tutorial for that?

Yes. The tutorial is actually one of the things I'll be updating soon. I believe it's a common problem for new players arriving, that I hope to fix.

It's a bit like the games biggest strength is also the biggest thing that puts newbies off - in that the multiplayer aspect is what keeps those hooked here but also drives new players away.

I know nothing about programming at all so do laugh if I am wildly ambitious but for the tutorial would it not be possible for a computer player to make pre-defined moves? I get that in a regular game this wouldn't be possible, but on a micro level, say just France vs Germany with neutrals in say Benelaux with everything else blanked out. could it be programmed for the comp to always do the same move for 1 turn. You know just to show a wall for example or range etc?

Wr1tt3n by Reichsheer, 16.07.2019 at 07:32

Which timezone is used?

US Central time (UTC-5)

Wr1tt3n by Reichsheer, 16.07.2019 at 07:32

Will other features such as the average amount of time people stay in games be released?

Currently no feature like that exists. At least not that I know of. I can tell how many games people play, but not how much time they spent.

There are lots of statistics like that that should be tracked but aren't.

Wr1tt3n by JUGERS2, 16.07.2019 at 07:36

I agree new players get bored really fast. That's true. I also hear a lot from beginners who don't know how to play other maps. That's understandable. It makes no sense that the new game tab only shows you the world map and it's presets, but for all the other maps you have to go to the maps page. Really it should be possible to pick any map from the new game tab, not having to go 2 separate places. So I'm revamping the new game tab's UI to make this possible.

I've also asked our supporters in the past to help host good maps for beginners when they can. If making a shared supporter account would make this easier, I'd be happy to make one.

Wr1tt3n by b0nker2, 16.07.2019 at 09:50

It's a bit like the games biggest strength is also the biggest thing that puts newbies off - in that the multiplayer aspect is what keeps those hooked here but also drives new players away.

I know nothing about programming at all so do laugh if I am wildly ambitious but for the tutorial would it not be possible for a computer player to make pre-defined moves? I get that in a regular game this wouldn't be possible, but on a micro level, say just France vs Germany with neutrals in say Benelaux with everything else blanked out. could it be programmed for the comp to always do the same move for 1 turn. You know just to show a wall for example or range etc?

I very much want there to be an option for a computer player in this game. Certainly a full AI is too ambitious for the immediate future, but eventually once the immediate problems are stabilized its something I will be looking at.

For the tutorial it would be cool if there was a computer player making a few pre-programmed moves, like you said. This *should* be a lot easier to accomplish, although there could be issues with the existing code that would make it not as easy as it should be. I'm not sure but I'll try to find a way.

Wr1tt3n by Dave, 16.07.2019 at 14:12

Wr1tt3n by JUGERS2, 16.07.2019 at 07:36

I agree new players get bored really fast. That's true. I also hear a lot from beginners who don't know how to play other maps. That's understandable. It makes no sense that the new game tab only shows you the world map and it's presets, but for all the other maps you have to go to the maps page. Really it should be possible to pick any map from the new game tab, not having to go 2 separate places. So I'm revamping the new game tab's UI to make this possible.

I've also asked our supporters in the past to help host good maps for beginners when they can. If making a shared supporter account would make this easier, I'd be happy to make one.

I'd enforce not ask supporters. Nice to see supporters doing something for a change instead of showing off their pretty badges, make them worth doing something to help the game.

Someone shared this chart with me:



Not sure where it came from, but it sums up the current state of atWar pretty well.

No disrespect intended to Amok or Ivan, but I guess 2014 must be when they stopped having time for aw.

Every summer the numbers drop since people are out doing real life fun stuff so it makes sense. I remember 2014 we were in prime time. I remember lots of cws and duels and players.
I think it all really changed and dropped once the game was switched to HTML. Since it was so laggy and slow. Made people quit and never come back.

This is by no means dave's fault. But this chart just proves how delusional the mod team is.

"Atwar isn't dying that is just a bad meme, people been saying that since forever"

maybe atwar was indeed dying all along. I am sure Dave will be able to turn this around but it would be much easier if bad mods like Sid get demoted.

Also Dave, i know you love your free code monkey, but Clovis is seriously a detriment to your game - he is unprofessional and unreliable.

>we have a mod for every 5 active players. Lol

Guys keep in mind that "players online" is only how many are online at a given time. It's not the total for the entire day.

For example in the last 24 hours, a total of 1332 players have been online at some point. Now at peak time maybe at most 300 of those were online at the same time. And the average for the whole day is maybe 120 (the blue line). But that doesn't mean only 120 logged in.

I know, half of that number is probably alts...

Maybe buying aw was a mistake...
Maybe situation with this game is worse than it looked at first...
Maybe it is better than all think...
Maybe too much money is needed to move this game forward...
Maybe too many things need to be done, fixed and improved...
Maybe the wrong people had a big influence...
Maybe some bans were a mistake...
Maybe peoples are just selfish and complain about everything they can...
Maybe it is normal that players leave, if in five years period, there wasnt any interesting upgrade...
Maybe domino effect is too strong here cuz comunity isnt big...
Maybe new team is needed to be formed and forced to work with new players...
Maybe players can do something with protocoins...
Maybe more tournaments should be played...
Maybe aw wasnt so censored in past...
Maybe is needed to fight for every single player. so he invite his friends here...
Maybe more videos about aw are needed to be shared...
Maybe some event evey month should happen, like troll night, stuffs vs rest, one day unban for all...
Maybe new motivation is needed for everyone...

Maybe e$cko has to be the boss so ALBANIAN MAFIA EXPLODES THE GAME

Wr1tt3n by Mauzer Panteri, 16.07.2019 at 16:28

Maybe buying aw was a mistake...
Maybe situation with this game is worse than it looked at first...
Maybe it is better than all think...
Maybe too much money is needed to move this game forward...
Maybe too many things need to be done, fixed and improved...
Maybe the wrong people had a big influence...
Maybe some bans were a mistake...
Maybe peoples are just selfish and complain about everything they can...
Maybe it is normal that players leave, if in five years period, there wasnt any interesting upgrade...
Maybe domino effect is too strong here cuz comunity isnt big...
Maybe new team is needed to be formed and forced to work with new players...
Maybe players can do something with protocoins...
Maybe more tournaments should be played...
Maybe aw wasnt so censored in past...
Maybe is needed to fight for every single player. so he invite his friends here...
Maybe more videos about aw are needed to be shared...
Maybe some event evey month should happen, like troll night, stuffs vs rest, one day unban for all...
Maybe new motivation is needed for everyone...

Maybe I agree with some of your ideas...
Maybe I don't agree with some other of your ideas...

I hate to admit, but Panteri is right.

Give more features for nom prems, like allowing popular maps and scenarios to be made by anyone.
THe most popular maps like ancient, ASOIAF, Battle for middle earth. And the most popular scenarios like WW1, The rome ones and etc.
Only premiums can make them to this day, and most don't even host it because high ranks are annoying as fuck and keep asking you to kick "player x" and the game never starts.

For new players, after some days, i don't think they are still having fun playing World game (and its variaties like Ancient, eurasia etc)

Most premiums only care about the General feature, and most I know don't even host any maps, They just join someone else's.
So just allow non prems to host more maps or any map at all.

Dave, have you ever played ANYTHING with high ranks?

To summarize: If they know you, you can play. If you are not experienced in a map, you will not play, and if the host doesn't kick the "noob player", a lot of them will leave.

Make silverlight back like old days :p

#VOTE4DAVE
# MAKE AW GREAT AGAIN

There needs to be more options with protocoins.
Right now there is very little purpose in purchasing them.

I suggest allowing people to set protocoin costs on their duels with winner take all.
Then give more options to use them for.